Possible scenario
Controlled Russian Retaliation
42% Chance
Moscow responds with a large conventional missile and drone barrage against Ukrainian command, energy, and logistics targets, but avoids direct attacks on NATO territory. This is the most likely path because Russia has repeatedly answered high-profile Ukrainian strikes with stand-off attacks while keeping escalation below a NATO trigger.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
- Copper Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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