Possible scenario
Strike Delayed Diplomatically
25% Chance
Trump may still use strike preparations as coercive leverage rather than immediately authorizing combat. Regional partners, oil-market concerns, and congressional pressure could buy time for a narrower nuclear freeze or inspection arrangement.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- Bitcoin Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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