Possible scenario
Regional War Escalates
20% Chance
A lower-probability but high-impact path is that US strikes trigger direct Iranian attacks on US forces, Israel, Gulf infrastructure, or shipping lanes. This would move the event from a bounded strike toward a regional crisis with larger energy and credit-market effects.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- Bitcoin Down
- Copper Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-3.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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