Possible scenario
Limited US Airstrikes
45% Chance
The most likely path is a large but bounded US bombing campaign against Iran's nuclear infrastructure and Revolutionary Guard facilities. Trump has rejected the deal framework, the Pentagon has completed preparations, and Washington may calculate that a short strike can reset negotiations without committing to ground war.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
- Bitcoin Down
- Copper Down
Secondary impacts
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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