Possible scenario
Rationing Persists
30% Chance
The immediate repair effort restores some generation but fails to normalize the grid. Damascus, Homs and parts of southern Syria continue planned outages as authorities prioritize hospitals, water pumps and government facilities.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.