Possible scenario
Taliban Internal Response
18% Chance
The warrants intensify debate inside the Taliban between hardliners who reject foreign pressure and pragmatists worried about aid, recognition and sanctions. The outcome depends on whether Kandahar-based religious authorities or Kabul-based administrators shape the response.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.