Possible scenario
Regional Powers Shield
25% Chance
Regional governments prioritize border security, counterterrorism and economic access over ICC enforcement. China, Russia, Iran, Pakistan and Qatar continue selective engagement with the Taliban while avoiding formal moves that would expose them to Western criticism.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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