Possible scenario
Isolation Without Arrests
45% Chance
The most likely outcome is that the ICC warrants deepen the Taliban's diplomatic isolation but do not lead to arrests. Haibatullah Akhundzada and other named leaders remain inside Afghanistan or travel only to non-ICC or politically sympathetic jurisdictions.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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