Possible scenario
Correction Deepens
30% Chance
Small caps continue to underperform as investors treat the wide break below the 200-day moving average as confirmation of deteriorating risk appetite. Higher financing costs weigh on leveraged companies, regional banks, and economically sensitive sectors.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -1.8%
- Consumer Cyclicals -1.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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