Possible scenario
Inquiry Stays Narrow
40% Chance
The most likely outcome is that the subpoenas seek documents and testimony related to Larry Krasner's 2024 lawsuit against Elon Musk's PAC and related election-interference statements. DOJ investigators pursue a narrow factual record, but the evidentiary threshold for charging an elected district attorney remains high.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.