Possible scenario
War Expands Regionally
20% Chance
The Houthi threat becomes operational, either through attacks on Turkish/Pakistani assets or through broader strikes after those states deepen support for Saudi Arabia. This is less likely than restrained support, but the recent seizure of Bab al-Mandeb and strikes on Riyadh and Yanbu make escalation credible.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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