Possible scenario
Quiet Coalition Support
25% Chance
Turkey and Pakistan do not formally join a ground war, but they provide intelligence, advisers, air-defense coordination or naval logistics to Saudi Arabia. This fits both countries' security ties with Riyadh while keeping political deniability after the Houthi warning.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.4%
- Consumer Services -0.7%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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