Possible scenario
UAE Ties Strained
18% Chance
The UAE distances itself from Netanyahu's denial without fully breaking with Israel under the Abraham Accords. Diplomatic coordination cools, but both governments try to prevent the dispute from damaging trade, aviation, and security channels.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.3%
- Energy +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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