Possible scenario
Negotiated USMCA Reset
22% Chance
Canada and the U.S. return to structured talks to preserve core USMCA supply chains while leaving some tariffs and industrial subsidies in place. This is less likely than continued tension but remains credible because autos, agriculture, and energy groups on both sides have strong incentives to lobby for relief.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.5%
- Consumer Cyclicals +1.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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