Possible scenario
Tight Managed Winter
38% Chance
Europe avoids a 2022-style emergency because LNG inflows, conservation, and relatively mild early-winter weather offset the loss of Russian transit via Ukraine. Prices remain elevated, but governments do not impose broad industrial rationing.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.2%
- Non-Energy Materials -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.