Possible scenario
Industrial Demand Cuts
27% Chance
High gas prices force energy-intensive industries to reduce consumption before households face shortages. Chemicals, fertilizer, glass, steel, and aluminum producers absorb most of the adjustment, limiting physical rationing but weakening European growth expectations.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Non-Energy Materials -2.6%
- Industrials -1.9%
- Utilities -1.5%
- Energy +1.5%
- Consumer Cyclicals -1.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.