Possible scenario
Negotiated Freeze Returns
20% Chance
The bomb-development call may strengthen diplomats arguing that only a negotiated cap can stop escalation. Tehran could use the public debate as bargaining leverage while accepting temporary limits on enrichment or monitoring in exchange for sanctions relief signals.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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