Possible scenario
Formal Policy Review
25% Chance
Iranian officials convert the public debate into a formal review of nuclear doctrine, using the threat of weaponization to pressure Washington, Israel, and Europe. This would not necessarily mean a bomb order, but it would raise perceived odds of a proliferation crisis.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.3%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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