Possible scenario
Managed Islamabad Channel
38% Chance
Iran and Pakistan keep the revived Islamabad understanding alive while avoiding a direct rupture with Washington. The reported $80 million in oil sales is treated as a limited, politically managed channel rather than a full collapse of the U.S. blockade.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.