Possible scenario
Blockade Escalates
20% Chance
The reported $80 million in sales becomes a trigger for harder U.S. enforcement and Iranian countermeasures. Even without full-scale war, markets would price a sharper Gulf supply risk premium over the next one to two trading days.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.1%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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