Possible scenario
Security Crackdown
15% Chance
Authorities prioritize restoring access to national cultural sites and use police removals, identity checks, and administrative bans. This could reopen museums quickly, but it risks radicalizing parts of the student movement and generating negative headlines internationally.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.5%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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