Possible scenario
Protests Spread Wider
30% Chance
The Louvre closure becomes a symbolic victory for the student movement, encouraging wider occupations of universities, cultural sites, and transit-adjacent campuses. The government faces a larger law-and-order challenge but not a systemic financial crisis.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -1.1%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.5%
- Finance -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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