Possible scenario
US Vessel Hit
18% Chance
At least one Iranian anti-ship ballistic missile penetrates defenses and causes meaningful damage or casualties. This would be a major escalation beyond prior missile exchanges and would likely trigger sustained U.S. military operations against Iranian forces.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
- Bitcoin Down
Secondary impacts
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-4.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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