Possible scenario
US Retaliates Directly
32% Chance
The United States conducts overt strikes on Iranian launchers, radars, drone bases, or command nodes tied to the anti-ship missile attack. This is a controlled escalation, but Tehran is likely to respond through another salvo or regional proxies.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -3.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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