Possible scenario
Interception Contains Crisis
38% Chance
U.S. Aegis destroyers, carrier air defenses, and allied sensors intercept most or all incoming Iranian anti-ship ballistic missiles. Washington retaliates narrowly or delays a strike while keeping carrier groups outside the highest-risk envelope.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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