Possible scenario
Race Stays Toss-Up
16% Chance
The Brown lead proves real but fragile, and subsequent surveys show a race inside the margin of error. Both parties and outside groups treat Ohio as one of the decisive Senate contests of 2026.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Bitcoin Down
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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