Husted Narrowly Retains

Jon Husted remains the slight structural favorite because Ohio has leaned Republican in recent federal elections and he benefits from incumbency, national GOP support, and outside spending. Brown's early 3-point lead keeps the race highly competitive, but Husted consolidates enough Republican voters by Election Day.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.