Possible scenario
Deal Holds Initially
35% Chance
Trump is most likely to resist a small Senate bloc and keep the Putin diesel arrangement in place while arguing emergency fuel-supply authority. The administration can slow-walk legal review and rely on executive control over sanctions licensing unless Congress musters a veto-proof coalition.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.3%
- Industrials +0.3%
Tickers
- VLO-0.9%
- -0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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