Limited Post-Midterm Strike

The most likely kinetic path is a limited U.S. or U.S.-backed operation after the midterms, focused on Iranian nuclear infrastructure, IRGC missile assets, and air-defense nodes. Washington would try to avoid a ground campaign while demonstrating that prior warnings were credible.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.