Possible scenario
Coercive Delay
29% Chance
The administration may use visible military planning and public threats to deter Iran while avoiding a pre-midterm shock. This path fits Trump's recent reversals and preserves flexibility without immediately accepting the risks of a regional war.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.4%
- Consumer Services +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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