Possible scenario
Renewed Access Dispute
20% Chance
The controversy could reopen if Ukraine reports fresh terminal slowdowns or if European allies accuse Washington of politicizing military communications. This would be a negative outcome for SpaceX and a modest risk-off signal for companies tied to battlefield connectivity, though not a broad macro shock.
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.6%
- Telecommunications -0.4%
- Industrials -0.3%
Tickers
- SPCX-5.5%
- VSAT+1.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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