Possible scenario
Managed Restoration Holds
40% Chance
The most likely path is that the restored Starshield access for moving Ukrainian terminals remains in place while Washington, Kyiv and SpaceX avoid a public rupture. Trump administration officials frame the slowdown as a narrow operational review rather than a policy reversal, limiting broader market fallout.
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.2%
- Industrials +0.2%
- Telecommunications +0.1%
Tickers
- SPCX+1.3%
- VSAT-0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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