Possible scenario
Smooth Supply Relief
45% Chance
The early winter-blend switch quickly expands usable supply and eases the California gasoline premium before the Oct. 31 seasonal deadline. Retail prices decline over the following days, giving Newsom political cover and reducing pressure for more aggressive intervention.
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.2%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.1%
- Consumer Services +0.1%
Tickers
- PBF-0.8%
- VLO-0.7%
- CVX-0.6%
- -0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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