Possible scenario
Outages Offset Waiver
25% Chance
The early blend shift is not enough to normalize the market because refinery operations remain impaired and inventories are too low. California continues relying on costly imports, and the state faces renewed scrutiny over refining capacity after recent closures.
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.6%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.1%
- Consumer Services -0.1%
Tickers
- PBF+2.5%
- VLO+2.1%
- PSX+1.6%
- +0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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