Possible scenario
Prolonged Near Closure
25% Chance
Commercial shipping remains almost frozen even without a dramatic new military escalation. War-risk insurers, tanker owners, and charterers refuse most voyages, forcing importers to draw inventories and governments to consider coordinated reserve releases.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +4.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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