Possible scenario
Negotiated Transit Corridor
25% Chance
Oman, Qatar, and possibly China press both sides to accept a temporary maritime safety arrangement. This scenario is plausible because Iran still needs export revenue and Gulf producers, Asian buyers, and insurers all have incentives to restore minimum traffic quickly.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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