Possible scenario
Convoy Reopening Attempt
35% Chance
Washington, the U.K., France, and Gulf partners move toward escorted transit operations because commercial traffic has collapsed to near zero. The main uncertainty is whether Iran avoids direct engagement or tests the convoy with mines, drones, and missile fire.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +2.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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