Possible scenario
Measured Fed Pause
30% Chance
The Fed treats the 3.7% inflation reading as concerning but not decisive, especially if officials point to lags in shelter and services data. Markets keep some hike premium in place, but the central bank avoids validating a sharply more aggressive path.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Utilities +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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