Possible scenario
Hawkish Fed Repricing
45% Chance
The September inflation print reinforces the Fed’s concern that services and tariff-related costs are not cooling fast enough. Traders lift the probability of another 25 basis point hike at the November FOMC meeting, pressuring duration-sensitive equities and pushing Treasury yields higher.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -1.4%
- Technology -1.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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