Possible scenario
Retaliation Cycle Expands
30% Chance
Riyadh responds to the airport casualties and warning controversy with additional strikes on Houthi missile and drone assets in Yemen. The Houthis attempt further retaliation, raising near-term risks for airports, oil infrastructure, and Red Sea shipping without necessarily producing a full regional war.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -2.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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