Possible scenario
Managed Aviation Restrictions
40% Chance
Saudi authorities restore public attack warnings and keep Riyadh airport operating with reduced schedules, tighter security screening, and intermittent airspace restrictions. This is the most likely path because Riyadh has strong incentives to avoid a broader war while still showing it can protect aviation infrastructure.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.6%
- Energy +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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