Possible scenario
Diplomatic De-escalation
20% Chance
Oman, the United Nations, or U.S. intermediaries push Riyadh and Houthi representatives toward a temporary pause in airport attacks and cross-border strikes. The warning lapse still draws scrutiny, but the immediate market impact reverses as aviation and oil-risk premiums ease.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +1.2%
- Energy -1.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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