Possible scenario
Factional Weapons Grab
20% Chance
The explosions could reflect competition among Syrian army remnants, Islamist factions, and local militias for control of weapons left after Assad’s collapse. This scenario increases internal Syrian instability but remains geographically contained unless major missile or chemical stores are captured.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.1%
- Industrials +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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