Possible scenario
Covert Israeli Campaign
28% Chance
Israel may be continuing a low-visibility campaign to prevent advanced missiles, drones, or chemical-linked materials from reaching hostile Islamist or Iran-aligned factions. This would fit the post-2024 pattern of Israeli strikes on Syrian arsenals, though both sides may avoid confirmation to limit escalation.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.4%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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