Possible scenario
Protests Escalate
27% Chance
Fuel-tax refusal becomes a catalyst for a new round of Yellow Vest-style mobilization, especially outside Paris and in logistics hubs. The memory of the 2018 protests makes this a credible downside scenario, though still less likely than a targeted compromise.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -2.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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