Possible scenario
Sanctions Bite Quickly
45% Chance
Major banks, aircraft lessors, travel agents, cargo brokers, and fuel-service providers comply rapidly with Treasury's dollar ban to avoid secondary sanctions. Iranian carriers lose access to routine settlement, ticketing, insurance, and fuel-payment channels outside a small group of sympathetic jurisdictions.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.3%
- Industrials +0.2%
- Finance -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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