Possible scenario
Iran-Proxy Retaliation
20% Chance
Tehran or aligned groups portray the airline ban as economic warfare and answer with calibrated pressure against Israel, Gulf shipping, or U.S.-linked interests. The most likely version remains limited and deniable, but markets price a small increase in regional escalation risk.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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