Possible scenario
Evasion Networks Adapt
25% Chance
Iran attempts to keep its aviation network functioning through non-dollar payments, barter fuel arrangements, front companies, and Caspian or Gulf intermediaries. The ban still raises costs, but Tehran avoids a total shutdown of its favored airline network.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.2%
- Finance -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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