Possible scenario
Johnson Stays Quietly
27% Chance
Johnson backs away from leaving and keeps his seat, but he does not try to reclaim a leadership post after losing the majority. This path preserves continuity for House Republicans while allowing a new minority leader to emerge.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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