Possible scenario
GOP Leadership Fight
20% Chance
Johnson's comments open a sharper contest over who leads House Republicans in the minority. The fight matters because a confrontational GOP leadership could complicate spending negotiations with a Democratic House and the Senate.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.1%
- Technology -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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